Security Fears Grow as Deported Criminals Could Flood Southern Africa

Experts Warn Eswatini US Deportees Could Spark Regional Security Crisis

Mbabane – Security analysts are raising concerns that Eswatini’s acceptance of violent US deportees may trigger a domino effect across Southern Africa, creating both security and governance challenges.

Interpol liaison officer David van Niekerk warns: “This sets a catastrophic precedent. We’re essentially creating a market where unstable governments can monetize their prison systems by importing foreign criminals.”

READ: The Shadowy World of Third-Country Criminal Deportations

Three Major Regional Threats Identified

Analysts say the scheme exposes Southern Africa to three immediate risks:

1. Prison Overcrowding – Eswatini’s jails already operate at 180% capacity, and the arrival of high-risk deportees further strains infrastructure.
2. Border Vulnerability – Weak immigration and surveillance controls could allow deported criminals to disperse into communities.
3. Corruption Risks – Financial incentives may tempt officials to accept increasingly dangerous offenders in exchange for cash.

Cash Incentives Fuel Controversy

Leaked US State Department cables indicate that at least six African countries are in negotiations to accept deportees, with compensation packages reaching $250,000 per high-risk inmate. This has prompted fears that criminal deportation could become a revenue stream for cash-strapped nations.

Meanwhile, Eswatini’s parliament remains excluded from discussions regarding the five current detainees’ long-term status or the financial details of their transfer. Critics argue this lack of transparency heightens public concern and undermines accountability.

READ: Eswatini Becomes 'Dumping Ground' for US Violent Criminals

Regional Implications

Experts warn that the current situation could embolden other countries to follow Eswatini’s model, potentially creating a network of incentivized criminal relocations across the continent. With borders porous and governance systems uneven, the potential for destabilization is high.