The GNU’s Precarious Balancing Act

The ANC’s weekend meeting laid bare its discomfort with the DA’s role in the GNU, particularly the latter’s refusal to coexist with the EFF. Politics Editor Mzwandile Mbeje noted the ANC’s insistence on inclusivity—“This cause is open for everyone”—while the DA and EFF remain mutually exclusionary. Yet tomorrow’s DA press conference could signal whether the party will double down or soften its stance.

The ANC’s subtle (and not-so-subtle) messaging blames the DA for deteriorating U.S. relations, citing the dismissal of a deputy minister for unauthorized travel. The resignation of DA foreign affairs spokesperson Emma Powell adds fuel to the fire. But as Mzwandile Mbeje observes, South Africa has seen these brinkmanship dramas before: “We’ve been here multiple times where it looks like this is the Rubicon moment, but they just never cross.”

National Dialogue or Government Monologue?

The rift extends to the national dialogue, once championed by foundations like Thabo Mbeki’s and FW de Klerk’s. These groups now accuse the government of hijacking the process, rushing the convention, and sidelining citizen-led input. Despite their withdrawal from the preparatory task team, the state insists the dialogue will proceed on Friday—with or without them.

The optics are damning. A dialogue meant to unify risks becoming an echo chamber. “You might end up with a dialogue of people who agree with one another,” Mzwandile Mbeje warns, while critical voices sit outside. With 750 organizations invited, the government’s insistence on speed over consensus threatens the very social compact it seeks.

The Rubicon’s Shadow

The ANC’s ultimatum—“If you’re not happy, you may exit”—may soon face a reality check. The DA’s presser tomorrow could either defuse tensions or ignite a chain reaction. Meanwhile, the foundations’ absence from the convention undermines its legitimacy. As Mzwandile Mbeje puts it: “At some point, they best break.”

Whether that point arrives tomorrow or later, one thing is clear: South Africa’s coalition politics are testing the limits of uneasy alliances. And this time, the Rubicon might just be crossed.