US Sanctions on ANC Leaders Likely, Raising Stakes for Ramaphosa

The US Congress is poised to pass a sanctions bill targeting senior ANC leaders, with bipartisan support expected. Diplomat Dr. Kingsley Makhubela cites the Republican majority in both chambers and Democratic backing as key factors ensuring the bill’s likely approval.

"Once national security concerns are raised, the US closes ranks," Makhubela explained. The legislation, now expanded to include Taiwan-related tensions and diplomatic expulsions, is expected to pass before the 2025 midterm elections.

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Ramaphosa Directly at Risk

If enacted, the sanctions could:

• Freeze assets of ANC officials
• Bar entry to the US, except for UN-related visits

Makhubela references a Hudson Institute article advocating selective sanctions, suggesting the US may even penalize countries hosting targeted ANC officials. Analysts warn this could isolate South Africa diplomatically, evoking parallels to apartheid-era restrictions.

Diplomatic Failures Highlighted

Makhubela dismisses claims that Ramaphosa’s 2024 Oval Office meeting was successful, citing unresolved tensions over:

• Land reform
• US refusal to engage on key bilateral issues

"Success isn’t access to the White House; it’s tangible outcomes," he argued. He also noted that the ANC’s reliance on Democratic support is insufficient, given the party’s recent shift toward the political right, which requires broader diplomatic engagement.

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Urgent Action Needed

With limited time to lobby Congress, South Africa’s lack of diplomatic infrastructure in the US is a critical weakness. Makhubela warns:

"Once the bill becomes law, reversing its effects will be a monumental task."

He urges immediate, high-level outreach to both Republican and Democratic lawmakers to mitigate potential sanctions and protect South Africa’s strategic and economic interests.