Gwede Mantashe Criticizes Parties Withdrawing from National Dialogue at UNISA
Politic
Aug 15, 2025
"US-South Africa Relations at a Crossroads: Decoding the Geopolitical Calculus Behind the New Sanctions Bill
By GlobalZa
As the US House advances a bill threatening sanctions against ANC officials, experts warn of escalating tensions and a broader shift in Washington’s Africa policy
The Bill’s Core Objectives
The US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025, spearheaded by Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX), aims to:
- Formalize punitive measures against South Africa for its alignment with China, Russia, and Iran.
- Empower the Trump administration to sanction ANC officials accused of undermining US interests.
- Codify existing executive actions, such as aid cuts and trade restrictions, into law.
"This bill institutionalizes the White House’s adversarial stance toward Pretoria," explains Professor Chris Isa, an international relations analyst. "It’s less about South Africa’s actions and more about signaling to the Global South."
Timing and Political Drivers
The bill’s introduction in April 2025 reflects:
- Republican leverage in the House to push hardline policies.
- Divergence within the GOP: While Trump admires Putin, congressional Republicans like Marco Rubio vehemently oppose Russia-SA ties.
- Retributive diplomacy: Punishing South Africa for its ICJ case against Israel and BRICS membership.
Potential Fallout
- Economic: US tariffs could disrupt SA’s $15B annual exports (e.g., automotive, agricultural sectors).
- Diplomatic: Further erosion of trust, complicating cooperation on HIV/AIDS, counterterrorism.
- Symbolic: Sets precedent for targeting other BRICS-aligned nations (e.g., Nigeria, Ethiopia).
Key Quote:
"The US is using South Africa as a cautionary tale for the Global South," says Chris Isike. "But Pretoria won’t abandon non-alignment under threat."
